S&P keeps Italy at BBB+: a positive outlook is not an upgrade
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Italy’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings at BBB+/A-2 on 13 November 2026, retaining a positive outlook.[1]
That distinction defines the decision: the rating has not risen, while the outlook remains favourable.[1]
Il Sole 24 Ore reports the affirmation and links the assessment to the expected resilience of Italy’s external financial position.[2]
## Support also comes from the private sector
S&P expects Italy’s diversified private sector to continue supporting current account surpluses, although more slowly and amid uncertainty over trade and energy prices.[1]
The agency expects its narrow net external debt indicator to fall below 150% of current account receipts by 2028.[1]
That ratio does not measure public debt against GDP: confusing the two would change the meaning of the analysis.
Il Sole highlights the resilience of goods exports despite US tariffs, alongside pressure from energy prices and Asian competition.[2]
## A difficult passage in 2027
S&P projects a wider deficit in 2027 ahead of the elections and amid greater energy support, while defence spending and interest payments continue weighing on public finances.[1]
Debt is expected to decline only gradually from 2028: this is the agency’s forecast, not an outcome already achieved.[1]
For 2026–2029 S&P estimates interest payments of about 4% of GDP and says elevated debt constrains fiscal room for manoeuvre.[1]
Sky TG24 reports Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti’s favourable response: he describes the affirmation as a success in difficult times.[3]
That is the minister’s political assessment, separate from the economic conditions identified by the agency.
## Two scenarios, neither automatic
Il Sole reports that S&P could consider a downgrade if Italy’s economic, external or fiscal position deteriorated significantly; an upgrade would instead require stronger external finances, greater resilience to shocks or a reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio.[2]
For readers following Italian public finances, the news is therefore an affirmation accompanied by conditions—not a guarantee of bond returns or a promise of an upgrade already decided.
## Sources
[1] https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/de/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3660036 — S&P Global Ratings
[2] https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/sp-conferma-rating-dell-italia-bbb-outlook-positivo-AJHLoHGC — Il Sole 24 Ore
[3] https://tg24.sky.it/economia/2026/11/13/standard-poor-rating-italia — Sky TG24