Istat sees 0.9% growth in 2026, with a slower 2027 already in view
Italy’s economy is expected to keep expanding, but with less momentum next year: Istat’s outlook published on 11 November projects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027.[1]
Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor reports the same figures; this is journalistic confirmation of the release, not a separate independent forecast.[2]
## Domestic demand carries the outlook
Istat expects domestic demand excluding inventories to contribute 1.2 percentage points to growth in 2026 and 0.6 points in 2027, with net foreign demand contributing nothing this year and slightly positively next year.[1]
Our editorial reading is that the resilience of the domestic market needs to be considered alongside its ability to sustain momentum, rather than through the annual GDP figure alone.
## Spending and investment slow
Consumption by households and non-profit institutions serving households is forecast to rise by 1.0% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, restrained by rising prices while nominal gross wages per employee maintain a positive but broadly stable trajectory.[1]
The household consumption expenditure deflator is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027: this is the specific measure used in the outlook, not a new monthly consumer-price reading.[1]
Gross fixed investment would also decelerate, from 2.9% in 2026 to 1.0% in 2027, mainly because public stimulus is expected to diminish under current legislation.[1]
## A forecast, not an achieved outcome
These figures belong to the forecast released yesterday, not to final 2026 accounts or data published this morning.[1]
For spending and investment decisions, the useful question is not whether to treat a projection as certain, but how much a plan depends on continued incentives and resilient demand.
This analysis keeps the macroeconomic outlook separate from individual monthly releases: positive annual growth alone does not describe the pace of the following year.
## Sources
[1] https://www.istat.it/comunicato-stampa/nota-sullandamento-e-prospettive-delleconomia-italiana-anni-2026-2027-aggiornamento-novembre — Istat — Prospettive economia 2026-2027, 11 novembre 2026
[2] https://www.ilsole24ore.com/radiocor/nRC_11.11.2026_11.13_27210272 — Sole 24 Ore Radiocor — Istat alza stima Pil, 11 novembre 2026