Manufacturing revenue heads for a record, but real growth stays below 1%
Italian manufacturing can post record revenue in 2026 without an equally strong recovery in real activity: the Intesa Sanpaolo-Prometeia report forecasts turnover of €1,168 billion, up 4.1% at current prices but just 0.8% at constant prices.[1]
Il Sole 24 Ore revisits that contrast on 10 November; the study was presented on 9 November, so this is not a new statistical release issued this evening.[2][1]
## Two measures, two messages
Nominal turnover includes price effects, whereas the inflation-adjusted measure describes the change after removing that component.[2]
Both full-year figures are forecasts rather than final outcomes: the report separates the 0.7% rise in real turnover in the first seven months from the 0.8% increase expected for the year, a distinction also reported by Teleborsa.[1][3]
Calling the euro-denominated record a boom would obscure that difference.
## The sector matters
For 2026, the report forecasts real turnover growth of 4.8% in electrical engineering, 2.6% in electronics and 1.6% in mechanical engineering; household appliances are expected to fall 5%, furniture 2.2% and fashion 1.2%.[1]
These are projected changes in inflation-adjusted sector revenue, not financial returns or rates applicable to every individual company.[1]
The authors link this divergence to the gap between investment-driven industries and products more exposed to weak consumer demand.[1]
Our editorial reading is that an industry-wide average is not enough to assess a business: its customer markets and the kind of demand it serves matter.
## Revenue is not profitability
The authors expect margins and profitability to remain under pressure through 2027, as weak demand makes it harder to pass all higher operating costs on to customers.[1]
They estimate gross operating margin as a share of turnover at 10.1% in 2026 and 9.9% in 2027, compared with 10.7% in 2025 company accounts.[1]
Record revenue should therefore not automatically be described as record profit.
The outlook remains restrained: real turnover is forecast to rise 0.8% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028.[1]
These figures describe a modest, uneven recovery under the authors’ scenario, not an outcome already secured.[1]
## Sources
[1] https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/newsroom/comunicati-stampa/2026/11/intesa-sanpaolo--presentato-insieme-a-prometeia-il-rapporto-anal — Intesa Sanpaolo e Prometeia, rapporto 9 novembre 2026
[2] https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/industria-avanti-adagio-2026-AJUVt56B — Il Sole 24 Ore, 10 novembre 2026
[3] https://www.teleborsa.it/News/2026/11/09/manifattura-italiana-tra-pressioni-energetiche-e-tensioni-geopolitiche-quali-prospettive-117.html — Teleborsa, 9 novembre 2026